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Toronto housing starts decrease in November 2016

Toronto housing starts decrease in November 2016

(Marketwired) — Housing starts in the Toronto Census Metropolitan Area (CMA) trended at 39,195 units in November 2016, compared to 39,689 in October 2016, according to Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC). The trend is a six-month moving average of the monthly seasonally adjusted annual rates (SAAR) of housing starts.

“Toronto’s housing start trend declined slightly in November due to a slowdown in new apartment construction,” said Dana Senagama, CMHC principal market analyst for the GTA. “However, single-detached home starts picked up pace as limited resale listings for lowrise homes continue to cause demand to spill over into the new home market.”

CMHC uses the trend measure as a complement to the monthly SAAR of housing starts to account for considerable swings in monthly estimates and obtain a complete picture of the state of the housing market. In some situations, analyzing only SAAR data can be misleading in some markets, as they are largely driven by the multiples segment of the markets, which can be quite variable from one month to the next.

The standalone monthly SAAR was 30,425 units in November, down from 48,035 units in October. The decrease was mainly a result of fewer apartment starts.

The City of Toronto recorded the highest number of starts within the Toronto CMA primarily due to higher apartment starts. Milton Township had the highest number of lowrise starts followed by the City of Brampton, where a number of single-detached homes started construction.

National Trend

The trend measure of housing starts in Canada was 199,135 units in November compared to 199,641 in October, according to CMHC. The trend is a six-month moving average of the monthly SAAR of housing starts.

“Housing starts kept a steady pace in November as upward trends observed in British Columbia and the Prairies offset downward trends recorded in Ontario, Quebec and the Atlantic provinces,” said Bob Dugan, CMHC chief economist. “We’re also seeing that housing starts are on track to have moderated in 2016 compared to 2015 in most centres where we detected overbuilding.”

The standalone monthly SAAR for all areas in Canada was 183,989 units in November, down from 192,297 units in October. The SAAR of urban starts decreased by 5 per cent in November to 166,828 units. Multiple urban starts decreased by 7.7 per cent to 105,915 units in November, while single-detached urban starts held steady at 60,913 units.

In November, the seasonally adjusted annual rate of urban starts decreased in Ontario, Quebec and in Atlantic Canada, but increased in British Columbia and in the Prairies.

Rural starts were estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 17,161 units.

As Canada’s authority on housing, CMHC contributes to the stability of the housing market and financial system, provides support for Canadians in housing need, and offers objective housing research and information to Canadian governments, consumers and the housing industry.


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